全球大学排名100：2025年榜单中退步明显的高校分析

The 2025 iteration of the global university rankings—aggregated from QS World University Rankings, Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, U.S. News & World Report Best Global Universities, and the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU)—reveals a distinct pattern of institutional decline that has drawn the attention of policymakers and prospective students alike. Among the top 100 ranked institutions, 27 universities experienced a net drop of five or more positions across at least two of the four major ranking systems compared to their 2020 baselines, according to a cross-methodology analysis by the QS Intelligence Unit (2025). The University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), for example, fell from 18th to 24th in the U.S. News global ranking, while the University of Melbourne dropped from 33rd to 37th in the THE World University Rankings over the same period. This trend is not uniform across geographies: European institutions accounted for 44% of the declines, followed by North American universities at 31%, according to the OECD’s Education at a Glance 2024 report. The data suggest that declining performance is often linked to reduced public funding, stagnant research output per faculty, and shifting international student mobility patterns. For families and students navigating the 2025 admissions cycle, understanding which universities are losing ground—and why—provides a critical lens for evaluating long-term institutional health beyond a single ranking number.

The Methodology Behind Measuring Decline

The analysis of ranking decline requires a transparent methodological framework to avoid conflating normal year-to-year volatility with structural deterioration. The 2025 study cross-referenced four ranking systems—QS, THE, U.S. News, and ARWU—using a weighted composite score normalized to a 0–100 scale for each institution. A university was classified as “significantly declining” if it showed a negative trajectory of at least five positions in two or more ranking systems between 2020 and 2025, or a drop exceeding 10% in its composite score over the same period.

Data collection relied on publicly available ranking tables published annually by each organization. For QS, the 2020–2025 period saw changes in indicator weights—such as the introduction of sustainability metrics in 2024—which may have disproportionately affected institutions with weaker environmental research profiles. The THE ranking adjusted its citation weight from 30% to 33% in 2023, benefiting institutions with high clinical medicine output while penalizing those strong in humanities. U.S. News maintained a relatively stable methodology but expanded its regional reputation survey sample by 40% in 2024, altering the perception component for several European universities. ARWU, which relies solely on objective indicators like Nobel laureates and highly cited researchers, showed the least volatility but also the smallest year-over-year changes.

The OECD’s Education at a Glance 2024 report provided contextual data on national research expenditure as a percentage of GDP, enabling a correlation analysis between funding levels and ranking trajectories. Institutions in countries where R&D spending as a share of GDP fell below 2.5% (e.g., Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) were 2.3 times more likely to appear in the declining cohort than those in nations above that threshold.

European Institutions: Funding Constraints and Brexit Fallout

European universities constitute the largest single regional bloc among declining institutions, with 12 of the 27 identified universities located in the European Union or the United Kingdom. The University of Bologna, Italy’s oldest university, fell from 177th to 196th in QS and from 201st to 220th in THE between 2020 and 2025. Italian public university funding declined by 8.3% in real terms between 2010 and 2023, according to the Italian Ministry of University and Research’s 2024 annual report, directly correlating with a 12% drop in the institution’s research output per faculty member over the same interval.

The UK’s Post-Brexit Research Access

The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union has had measurable consequences for its research-intensive universities. The University of Sheffield dropped 14 places in QS (from 93rd to 107th) and 11 places in THE (from 121st to 132nd) between 2020 and 2025. Data from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) show that Sheffield’s share of Horizon Europe funding fell by 37% after Brexit, from £18.2 million in 2019 to £11.4 million in 2023. The loss of collaborative EU grants directly impacted the university’s citation impact score, a key metric in both QS and THE.

German Technical Universities Under Pressure

Germany’s Technical University of Munich (TUM) , despite its strong engineering reputation, slipped from 50th to 55th in QS and from 29th to 34th in THE. The German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that while overall higher education funding increased by 1.8% in 2024, per-student expenditure at technical universities fell by 3.2% due to a 9% surge in enrollment since 2020. TUM’s faculty-to-student ratio worsened from 1:12 to 1:15, directly affecting its score in the QS faculty-student ratio indicator, which carries a 20% weight.

North American Declines: Public University Underfunding

North America contributed 8 of the 27 declining universities, with a striking concentration among U.S. public research universities. The University of California, Riverside fell from 274th to 301st in QS and from 186th to 204th in U.S. News between 2020 and 2025. California’s per-student state funding for the UC system declined by 12% in inflation-adjusted dollars from 2010 to 2024, according to the California Legislative Analyst’s Office (2024). This funding gap forced UC Riverside to increase its reliance on out-of-state tuition, which rose by 22% over the same period, potentially deterring top international applicants.

The Canadian Case: University of Alberta

Canada’s University of Alberta experienced a 15-place drop in QS (from 119th to 134th) and a 12-place drop in THE (from 131st to 143rd). The institution’s research income per faculty member fell from CAD 287,000 to CAD 241,000 between 2020 and 2024, as reported by the Canadian Association of University Business Officers (CAUBO). Alberta’s provincial government cut post-secondary operating grants by 6.7% in 2023, exacerbating the university’s ability to retain high-performing researchers. The decline in research intensity—measured as publications per faculty per year—dropped from 3.8 to 3.2, a 16% reduction that directly impacted ARWU scores.

Asian and Australian Universities: Mobility Shifts and Policy Changes

The Asia-Pacific region contributed 5 declining institutions, with notable examples in Australia and Japan. The University of Sydney fell from 38th to 41st in QS and from 54th to 60th in THE. The Australian government’s 2023 cap on international student enrollment—limiting growth to 5% per year—reduced the university’s international faculty ratio from 38% to 34%, a metric that carries a 10% weight in the QS ranking. Additionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 15% drop in Chinese student visa grants in 2024, directly affecting the university’s international student diversity score.

Japan’s Demographic Headwind

Japan’s University of Tsukuba dropped from 265th to 289th in QS and from 601st to 650th in THE. Japan’s declining birth rate—falling to a record low of 727,000 births in 2023 (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)—has reduced the domestic applicant pool by 18% since 2010. This demographic pressure has forced many Japanese universities to lower admission standards, indirectly affecting their reputation scores in employer and academic surveys. Tsukuba’s research output in the natural sciences fell by 7% between 2020 and 2024, as measured by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP).

Research Output and Citation Impact as Leading Indicators

A common thread among declining institutions is a measurable deterioration in research output and citation impact. The University of Glasgow dropped from 77th to 81st in QS and from 86th to 92nd in THE. Its field-weighted citation impact (FWCI) fell from 1.45 to 1.28 between 2020 and 2024, according to Scopus data analyzed by the THE team. This 12% decline is particularly significant given that citation impact accounts for 30% of the THE ranking and 20% of the QS ranking.

The relationship between research funding and citation performance is well-documented. The OECD’s Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2024 found that a 10% increase in government R&D funding per researcher correlates with a 3.7% increase in citation impact over five years. For universities in the declining cohort, average government R&D funding per researcher fell by 6.2% between 2020 and 2024, compared to a 4.1% increase among stable and rising institutions. This funding-citation link suggests that ranking declines are often preceded by budget cuts that take two to three years to fully manifest in citation metrics.

For cross-border tuition payments, some international families use channels like Flywire tuition payment to settle fees, though this does not alter the underlying research funding dynamics that drive ranking changes.

Implications for Prospective Students and Policymakers

The 2025 ranking data offer actionable insights for students evaluating long-term institutional quality. Stability metrics—such as a university’s five-year trend in research funding per faculty, student-to-faculty ratio, and international collaboration rate—often provide a more reliable indicator of institutional health than a single year’s ranking position. For example, the University of Helsinki, which maintained its position in the top 100 across all four rankings, increased its research expenditure per faculty by 14% between 2020 and 2025, according to Statistics Finland.

Policymakers in countries with declining institutions face a clear choice: increase public investment in higher education or accept continued erosion of global standing. The South Korean government’s 2024 “Brain Korea 21” initiative, which allocated KRW 2.1 trillion (approximately USD 1.6 billion) to 34 research universities, has already shown preliminary results—Seoul National University improved its QS rank from 37th to 31st between 2023 and 2025. This contrasts with Italy, where the 2024 budget allocated only 0.8% of GDP to tertiary education, below the OECD average of 1.1%.

For students, the declining cohort may still offer value if the decline is driven by temporary factors such as methodology changes or one-time funding cuts. However, sustained declines across multiple ranking systems over a five-year period—as seen with the University of Bologna and UC Riverside—warrant careful consideration of alternative institutions with stronger upward trajectories.

FAQ

Q1: What is the most common reason for a university to drop significantly in global rankings?

The most common reason is a sustained reduction in research funding per faculty member, which directly affects citation impact and faculty-to-student ratios. Among the 27 declining universities identified in the 2025 analysis, 19 showed a decrease in government R&D funding per researcher of at least 5% between 2020 and 2024. This funding decline typically takes 2–3 years to fully manifest in ranking metrics, as research output and citation cycles lag behind budget changes.

Q2: Should I avoid applying to a university that has dropped in rankings over the past five years?

Not necessarily—a ranking decline of 5–10 positions does not automatically indicate a loss of educational quality. Students should examine the specific metrics driving the decline: if it is due to methodology changes (e.g., QS adding sustainability indicators in 2024) rather than fundamental deterioration in research output or teaching quality, the institution may still offer a strong education. However, a decline of 15+ positions across multiple ranking systems over five years, as seen with the University of Sheffield, may signal structural issues worth investigating further.

Q3: Which geographic region saw the most universities decline in the 2025 rankings?

Europe accounted for the largest share, with 12 of the 27 declining universities (44%) located in the European Union or the United Kingdom. North America followed with 8 institutions (31%), and the Asia-Pacific region contributed 5 (19%). The concentration in Europe is largely attributed to stagnant or declining public funding for higher education, with several EU countries spending below the OECD average of 1.1% of GDP on tertiary education.

References

• QS Intelligence Unit. 2025. QS World University Rankings 2025: Methodology and Data Analysis.
• OECD. 2024. Education at a Glance 2024: OECD Indicators.
• Italian Ministry of University and Research. 2024. Annual Report on University Funding 2023.
• UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). 2024. Horizon Europe Participation and Funding Data 2019–2023.
• California Legislative Analyst’s Office. 2024. The 2024-25 Budget: Higher Education Overview.