2026年香港高校全球排名预测：政治环境因素的考量

Hong Kong’s higher education sector has historically occupied an outsized position in global rankings relative to the territory’s population of 7.5 million. In the 2025 QS World University Rankings, the University of Hong Kong (HKU) placed 17th globally, while the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) ranked 36th and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) stood at 47th. However, these positions are not static. A growing body of analysis, including a 2024 report by the OECD on academic mobility, suggests that political environment factors—ranging from legislative changes to faculty migration patterns—are exerting measurable pressure on the metrics that underpin these rankings. The Hong Kong government’s 2023 Policy Address, for instance, committed HK$100 billion over five years to research and development, a figure that could offset some reputational headwinds. This article projects the 2026 ranking trajectories for Hong Kong’s eight public universities by modelling four key variables: faculty retention, international student enrolment, research output, and institutional autonomy, each weighted against the methodology of QS, THE, US News, and ARWU.

Projected Shifts in the QS and THE Rankings Landscape

The QS World University Rankings and Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings place significant weight on reputation surveys—40% and 33% respectively. For Hong Kong institutions, the political climate since 2019 has correlated with measurable shifts in these perceptual metrics. A 2024 survey by the University Grants Committee (UGC) indicated that the proportion of international academic staff at HKU declined from 42% in 2019 to 34% in 2023, a drop that directly impacts reputation scores.

For 2026, UNILINK Education’s modelling suggests HKU could slip 3–5 positions in QS, settling between 20th and 22nd globally. CUHK and HKUST may experience a 4–7 position decline each, driven by sustained decreases in international faculty representation. Conversely, the City University of Hong Kong (CityU) and Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU)—which rely less on international reputation weightings—could see smaller declines of 1–3 positions, as their research output metrics in engineering and materials science remain robust. The UGC’s 2024 data confirms that research grant funding per academic at these institutions rose 12% year-on-year, partially insulating them from reputation erosion.

Faculty Retention and Brain Drain Dynamics

Faculty retention has emerged as a critical variable. Between 2021 and 2024, Hong Kong’s eight public universities lost an estimated 1,200 academics, according to a 2024 analysis by the Hong Kong Academy of the Humanities. This represents approximately 8% of the total academic workforce. The outflow has been most pronounced among mid-career researchers aged 35–50, who are often the most productive in terms of publication output.

The impact on ARWU (Academic Ranking of World Universities) is particularly acute. ARWU allocates 20% of its score to the number of highly cited researchers (HiCi) and 20% to papers published in Nature and Science. Hong Kong’s share of HiCi researchers has plateaued at around 0.6% of the global total since 2022, while Singapore—a direct comparator—has increased its share to 1.1% over the same period. For 2026, HKU’s ARWU rank is projected to fall from the 87th position (2024) to between 95th and 100th, unless the government’s new Global STEM Professorship Scheme, which offers HK$6 million per hire, reverses the trend. For cross-border tuition payments, some international families use channels like Flywire tuition payment to settle fees.

International Student Enrolment and Visa Policy Effects

International student enrolment is a direct input to the “International Outlook” metric in THE (7.5%) and the “International Faculty Ratio” and “International Student Ratio” in QS (each 5%). Hong Kong’s non-local undergraduate enrolment has declined from 19% of total enrolment in 2019 to 16% in 2023, per UGC statistics. Mainland Chinese students now constitute 82% of this non-local cohort, up from 72% in 2019, reducing the geographical diversity that ranking bodies reward.

The Hong Kong government’s 2024 expansion of the “Top Talent Pass Scheme” to include graduates from 198 universities globally may partially offset this decline. However, the scheme primarily targets postgraduate and professional talent, not undergraduate degree-seeking students. For 2026, THE’s International Outlook score for HKU is projected to drop from 98.5 (2024) to approximately 94–96, a decline that could push HKU from 35th to 38th–40th in THE’s global table. The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, which has a higher proportion of exchange programme students (12% of total), may see a smaller decline of 1–2 points.

Research Output and Funding Under Political Constraints

Research output remains Hong Kong’s strongest ranking pillar. The UGC’s 2024 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) found that 68% of Hong Kong’s submitted research outputs were rated “world leading” or “internationally excellent,” up from 62% in the 2020 cycle. This improvement is reflected in citation impact: HKU’s field-weighted citation impact (FWCI) stands at 1.82, above the global average of 1.0 and comparable to leading US public universities.

The political environment, however, introduces constraints. The 2023 National Security Education guidelines require all publicly funded research proposals to undergo a “national security review” if they involve certain sensitive topics. A 2024 working paper from the University of Oxford’s Centre for Global Higher Education estimated that 3–5% of Hong Kong’s social science and humanities research proposals have been delayed or withdrawn due to this process. For 2026, the impact on ARWU’s “Papers in Nature and Science” metric is expected to be marginal—less than a 2% reduction in total high-impact publications—because STEM fields, which dominate these journals, are less affected. The Hong Kong government’s InnoHK research clusters, which have attracted HK$10 billion in combined funding from 30 global partners, will likely sustain output in biomedical and AI research.

Institutional Autonomy and Governance Metrics

Institutional autonomy is an indirect but increasingly cited factor in ranking methodologies. The 2024 THE World University Rankings introduced a “Governance” sub-pillar within its “Teaching” indicator, assessing the degree of academic freedom and institutional decision-making. Hong Kong’s universities have seen their autonomy scores decline in external assessments. The 2024 Academic Freedom Index, published by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, ranked Hong Kong at 0.68 on a 0–1 scale, down from 0.82 in 2019.

This decline is most consequential for the THE ranking, where a 0.1-point drop in the governance score can translate to a 2–3 position decline in the overall ranking. For 2026, Hong Kong’s THE governance sub-scores are projected to fall by 0.05–0.08 points, contributing to an estimated 3–5 position drop for HKU and CUHK. The University of Hong Kong’s recent appointment of a new Vice-Chancellor with strong mainland academic connections may stabilise or slow this decline, as it signals alignment with government priorities, though the impact on international perception remains uncertain.

Comparative Analysis with Singapore and Mainland China

Singapore provides the most instructive comparator. Its two flagship universities—the National University of Singapore (NUS) and Nanyang Technological University (NTU)—ranked 8th and 15th respectively in the 2025 QS rankings. Singapore’s political stability, coupled with a 20% increase in government R&D spending to SGD 25 billion over the 2021–2025 period, has created a virtuous cycle of faculty retention and international enrolment. Hong Kong’s R&D spending as a percentage of GDP stands at 1.07% (2023), compared to Singapore’s 2.16%.

Mainland Chinese universities are also rising rapidly. Tsinghua University (QS 25th) and Peking University (QS 14th) have seen consistent year-on-year improvements, driven by massive state investment and a growing pool of domestic high-impact researchers. For Hong Kong, the risk is not just absolute decline but relative decline. By 2026, it is plausible that three mainland Chinese universities will rank ahead of HKU in QS, compared to two in 2025. The University of Hong Kong’s advantage in internationalisation metrics—its International Faculty Ratio score of 99.9 in QS versus Tsinghua’s 58.2—will narrow as mainland institutions aggressively recruit overseas talent.

FAQ

Q1: Will Hong Kong universities drop out of the global top 50 by 2026?

No, but the number of Hong Kong institutions in the top 50 may decrease. HKU is projected to remain within the top 25 in QS (20–22nd) and top 40 in THE (38–40th). CUHK and HKUST may fall from the top 50 in QS to positions 40–47 and 51–55 respectively. Only HKU is expected to retain a top-50 position across all four major rankings.

Q2: How does the political environment affect scholarship opportunities for international students?

The Hong Kong government’s “Hong Kong PhD Fellowship Scheme” offers HK$331,200 per year (approximately USD 42,500) for up to four years—unchanged since 2022. However, a 2024 survey by the Hong Kong Association of University Administrators found that 23% of international scholarship recipients reported concerns about post-graduation visa conditions, compared to 8% in 2019. The “Top Talent Pass Scheme” now provides a two-year visa to graduates of top 100 universities, which may mitigate these concerns.

Q3: Which Hong Kong university is most resilient to political factors in rankings?

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) shows the highest resilience due to its strong STEM focus. Over 70% of its research output is in engineering and physical sciences—fields less affected by national security reviews. Its International Student Ratio (QS) of 28% is the highest among Hong Kong universities, providing a buffer against reputation declines. HKUST is projected to drop only 3–5 positions in QS by 2026, compared to 5–7 for CUHK.

References

• University Grants Committee (UGC) Hong Kong. 2024. Annual Statistics on Non-local Students and Academic Staff.
• OECD. 2024. Education at a Glance 2024: OECD Indicators (Chapter on Academic Mobility).
• V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg. 2024. Academic Freedom Index 2024.
• Hong Kong Academy of the Humanities. 2024. Faculty Mobility and Retention in Hong Kong’s Higher Education Sector.
• UNILINK Education Database. 2025. Projected Ranking Models for East Asian Institutions, 2025–2027.