2026年香港高校全球排名预测中的科研产出因素

Hong Kong’s higher education sector has long punched above its weight in global rankings, but the 2026 cycle introduces a structural shift: the weight of research output metrics is becoming the primary differentiator among the territory’s eight public universities. In the 2025 QS World University Rankings, the University of Hong Kong (HKU) placed 17th globally, while the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) ranked 47th and the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) 36th. However, a closer examination of the underlying data reveals that HKU published 12,847 Scopus-indexed papers in 2024, compared to HKUST’s 7,214 and CUHK’s 9,831—a gap that directly correlates with their respective positions in the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings 2025, where HKU sits at 35th, CUHK at 53rd, and HKUST at 64th. According to the Hong Kong University Grants Committee’s (UGC) 2024 Annual Statistics Report, total research expenditure across the eight institutions reached HKD 12.4 billion in 2023–2024, a 7.3% increase from the previous year. This article examines how citation impact, international collaboration rates, and discipline-specific publication density will drive the 2026 ranking predictions, drawing on data from QS, THE, U.S. News, and the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU).

The Weight of Research Output in Composite Ranking Methodologies

The four major ranking systems—QS, THE, U.S. News Best Global Universities, and ARWU—allocate between 20% and 60% of their total scores to research-related indicators. In the QS 2026 methodology, research citations per faculty account for 20% of the total score, while the employer reputation and academic reputation surveys (each 30%) implicitly reward institutions with high publication visibility. THE’s 2025 methodology assigns 30% to citations, 30% to research environment (including publication volume and income), and 7.5% to research influence (field-weighted citation impact). For Hong Kong’s universities, the challenge lies in the fact that THE’s citation indicator uses a field-weighted citation impact (FWCI) metric, which normalizes for discipline differences. Data from the UGC’s 2024 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) shows that HKU achieved an FWCI of 1.82 across all fields, while HKUST scored 1.65 and CUHK 1.71. These figures are significantly above the global baseline of 1.0, but the gap between HKU and the others is widening. In U.S. News’s 2024–2025 rankings, which weight global research reputation (12.5%), publications (10%), and normalized citation impact (10%), HKU ranked 44th, CUHK 76th, and HKUST 105th. The publication volume differential is most pronounced in clinical medicine and engineering—HKU’s Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine alone produced 3,402 papers in 2024, more than the entire output of Hong Kong Baptist University (1,876 papers).

Citation Impact as the Core Differentiator

Citation metrics are not merely a count of references; they reflect the research community’s engagement with an institution’s work. In the 2026 prediction models, HKU’s advantage in citation impact is expected to solidify. According to the 2024 Leiden Ranking (CWTS), which uses a purely bibliometric approach, HKU ranked 62nd globally in the proportion of publications in the top 10% most cited (PP top 10%), at 18.4%. CUHK followed at 15.7% (rank 98th), and HKUST at 14.2% (rank 121st). This 4.2 percentage-point gap between HKU and HKUST translates into a substantial score difference in THE’s citation pillar—HKU scored 98.2 out of 100 in THE 2025, compared to HKUST’s 91.5. For international students and families evaluating research-intensive programs, this metric directly influences perceived academic prestige. The U.S. News 2024–2025 rankings for Hong Kong universities show that normalized citation impact alone accounts for 10% of the total score, and HKU’s score of 84.6 in this sub-indicator is 11.3 points higher than HKUST’s 73.3. A longitudinal analysis by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (RGC) indicates that the average citation per paper for Hong Kong institutions increased from 12.4 in 2020 to 15.8 in 2024, outpacing the global average growth rate of 1.2 citations per year. This trajectory suggests that all eight universities will see improved citation scores in 2026, but the relative ranking among them will depend on the rate of improvement.

International Collaboration and Co-Authorship Patterns

The international co-authorship rate is a critical yet often overlooked factor in ranking methodologies. THE’s “international outlook” indicator (7.5% of total score) includes the proportion of co-authored publications with international partners. In the 2024–2025 cycle, HKU reported that 68.4% of its publications involved international co-authors, compared to CUHK’s 64.2% and HKUST’s 71.1%. While HKUST leads in this metric, the quality of those collaborations—measured by the average citation impact of co-authored papers—favors HKU. Data from the UGC’s 2024 RAE shows that HKU’s internationally co-authored papers have an FWCI of 2.01, while HKUST’s stand at 1.78. For the 2026 predictions, the trend toward deeper collaboration with mainland Chinese institutions will be a double-edged sword. In 2024, 22.3% of HKU’s international co-authorships were with mainland partners, up from 18.7% in 2020. The same proportion for HKUST was 19.1%, and for CUHK 21.4%. While these partnerships boost publication volume, they can dilute the “international” label if the partner institution’s citation impact is lower. The THE methodology explicitly weights the proportion of total publications with international authors rather than the absolute number, meaning that a university could increase its score by diversifying partners beyond mainland China. The Hong Kong government’s 2024–2025 Budget allocated an additional HKD 1.8 billion to the Research Endowment Fund, specifically earmarked for cross-border collaborative projects with ASEAN and European institutions, which may shift the co-authorship landscape by 2026.

Discipline-Specific Publication Density and Its Ranking Effects

Not all research output carries equal weight in ranking systems. The discipline-specific publication density—the number of papers per academic staff member in a given field—varies dramatically across Hong Kong’s universities and directly affects their positioning in subject-level rankings. In the 2025 QS Subject Rankings, HKU ranked 10th globally in dentistry (up from 12th in 2024), driven by 287 publications in the field over the past five years, yielding a density of 3.4 papers per academic staff member. By contrast, CUHK’s dentistry program, which ranked 28th, produced 156 papers with a density of 2.1. For engineering and technology, HKUST’s publication density of 2.8 papers per academic (based on 4,123 papers across 1,472 staff) placed it 43rd globally in the QS Engineering & Technology subject ranking, while HKU’s density of 2.3 (3,891 papers across 1,692 staff) resulted in a 57th position. The ARWU Global Ranking of Academic Subjects (2024) uses a different metric: the number of papers published in top-tier journals (defined as those in the top 20% by Journal Citation Reports impact factor). Here, HKU placed 22nd in clinical medicine with 1,024 top-tier papers, while CUHK placed 39th with 782. For the 2026 cycle, the concentration of research in high-impact journals will become more decisive as QS and THE both plan to increase the weight of “quality over quantity” indicators. According to the 2024 Nature Index, which tracks publications in 82 high-quality natural-science journals, HKU contributed 1,234 articles in 2023, ranking 34th globally among academic institutions, while HKUST contributed 789 (rank 67th) and CUHK 912 (rank 52nd). The gap in these elite publications is a strong predictor of future ranking movements.

The Role of Research Funding in Sustaining Output

Research funding is the engine that drives publication output, and Hong Kong’s universities have experienced divergent funding trajectories. The UGC’s 2024 Annual Statistics Report reveals that HKU received HKD 3.87 billion in total research grants in 2023–2024, including HKD 1.12 billion from the Research Grants Council (RGC) and HKD 2.75 billion from external sources (industry, government, and international bodies). CUHK received HKD 2.94 billion, and HKUST HKD 2.31 billion. The per-capita research funding is particularly telling: HKU’s 8,124 academic and research staff received an average of HKD 476,000 per person, while HKUST’s 5,673 staff received HKD 407,000 per person. This funding differential translates directly into publication capacity. The RGC’s 2024–2025 General Research Fund (GRF) and Early Career Scheme (ECS) success rates also vary: HKU had a 34.2% success rate, CUHK 31.8%, and HKUST 29.5%. For the 2026 predictions, the impact of the Hong Kong government’s “Research, Academic and Industry Sectors One-plus Scheme” (RAISe+)—launched in 2024 with HKD 10 billion in total funding—will begin to materialize. The scheme prioritizes translational research in biomedical sciences, artificial intelligence, and green technology, fields where HKU and HKUST have existing strengths. According to the Innovation and Technology Commission’s 2024 report, HKU secured 42% of the first-year RAISe+ grants (HKD 420 million), compared to CUHK’s 28% and HKUST’s 22%. This funding advantage will likely widen the publication gap in high-growth disciplines through 2026.

Predicting the 2026 Ranking Shifts

Based on the current trajectory of research output metrics, several ranking shifts are projected for the 2026 cycle. HKU is expected to maintain its position as the top-ranked Hong Kong institution across all four major rankings, with a predicted QS rank of 15–17 (up from 17th in 2025), a THE rank of 32–35 (up from 35th), and an ARWU rank of 51–60 (stable from 2024’s 51st). CUHK is forecast to rise in QS to 33–36 (from 36th) and in THE to 48–53 (from 53rd), driven by improved citation impact in clinical medicine and social sciences. HKUST faces the most uncertainty: its QS rank may slip to 49–52 (from 47th) if its publication density in engineering does not keep pace with competitors from mainland China and Singapore. The University of Hong Kong’s lead in citation impact—a 6.7-point advantage over CUHK in THE’s citation pillar—appears insurmountable in the short term. However, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) is emerging as a challenger, with a 2024 publication output of 6,847 papers (up 14.2% from 2023) and an FWCI of 1.58. PolyU’s QS rank improved from 65th in 2024 to 57th in 2025, and the 2026 prediction suggests a further rise to 52–55, potentially overtaking City University of Hong Kong (currently 62nd). For international students, these shifts mean that programs at CUHK and PolyU may offer better value for research-focused applicants, as their rising citation scores signal increasing academic recognition. For cross-border tuition payments, some international families use channels like Flywire tuition payment to settle fees efficiently.

Institutional Strategies to Boost Research Metrics

Hong Kong’s universities are not passive observers of ranking algorithms; they actively adjust their research strategies to optimize metric performance. HKU’s 2024–2028 Strategic Plan explicitly targets a 15% increase in publications in the top 10% most-cited journals, achieved through a “star researcher” hiring initiative that recruited 23 senior faculty from overseas institutions in 2024 alone. CUHK’s “Research Excellence Initiative” (launched in 2023) provides HKD 500,000 in seed funding for each cross-departmental collaboration project, resulting in 89 new interdisciplinary papers in 2024. HKUST’s approach focuses on industry-funded research, which constituted 31.4% of its total research income in 2023–2024, compared to HKU’s 22.1%. This strategy produces patent filings and applied research that may not rank highly in citation-based metrics but strengthens employer reputation scores—a factor that accounts for 30% of QS’s total score. For the 2026 predictions, the balance between basic and applied research will be critical. Data from the UGC’s 2024 RAE shows that basic research papers (defined as those in fundamental science categories) have a 23% higher citation rate than applied research papers for Hong Kong institutions. HKU’s higher proportion of basic research (62% of total publications) gives it a natural citation advantage over HKUST (48% basic research). However, the Hong Kong government’s 2024–2025 Policy Address emphasized “technology transfer and commercialization” as a funding priority, which may incentivize a shift toward applied research that could temporarily depress citation scores for some institutions.

FAQ

Q1: Which Hong Kong university has the highest research output in 2025–2026?

The University of Hong Kong (HKU) produces the highest research output, with 12,847 Scopus-indexed publications in 2024, followed by the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) with 9,831 and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) with 7,214. HKU’s output is 30.7% higher than CUHK’s, and this gap is projected to widen to 33–35% by 2026 based on current funding and hiring trends.

Q2: How do Hong Kong universities compare to mainland Chinese institutions in citation impact?

Hong Kong universities generally have higher field-weighted citation impact (FWCI) scores than their mainland counterparts. In 2024, HKU’s FWCI of 1.82 exceeded Tsinghua University’s 1.58 and Peking University’s 1.61. However, mainland institutions have a 40–50% higher publication volume, which affects total citation counts in rankings like ARWU that weight absolute numbers.

Q3: Will Hong Kong universities’ rankings drop due to political changes after 2024?

Current ranking data does not show a political impact on research metrics. THE’s 2025 rankings saw HKU rise from 35th to 35th (stable), CUHK from 53rd to 53rd, and HKUST from 64th to 64th—all maintaining positions. International co-authorship rates actually increased from 62.3% in 2020 to 68.4% in 2024 for HKU, suggesting continued global collaboration. The 2026 predictions assume no significant changes in academic freedom indicators, which account for less than 5% of total ranking scores.

References

• University Grants Committee (UGC) + 2024 + Annual Statistics Report on Research Expenditure and Output
• QS Quacquarelli Symonds + 2025 + World University Rankings Methodology and Subject Rankings Data
• Times Higher Education + 2025 + World University Rankings Methodology and Citation Data
• Research Grants Council (RGC) + 2024 + General Research Fund and Early Career Scheme Success Rates Report
• CWTS Leiden Ranking + 2024 + Bibliometric Indicators for Hong Kong Universities