2026年全球大学排名预测：虚拟交换项目对国际化的影响

In 2024, the global higher education sector hosted over 6.4 million internationally mobile students, a figure projected by the OECD to approach 8 million by 2030 [OECD, 2024, Education at a Glance]. Yet a paradigm shift is underway: virtual exchange (VE) programs—structured, technology-mediated, collaborative learning between geographically separated peers—are becoming a standard component of university internationalization strategies. A 2023 survey by the International Association of Universities (IAU) found that 53% of institutions now offer some form of virtual or blended mobility, up from 34% in 2019 [IAU, 2023, 5th Global Survey on Internationalization]. This rapid adoption raises a critical question for the 2026 ranking cycle of QS, THE, US News, and ARWU: how will these programs recalibrate the metrics of internationalization? Traditional ranking indicators, such as the proportion of inbound degree-seeking students and faculty, may no longer capture the full scope of a university’s global footprint. This analysis examines the methodological implications of virtual exchange on four major ranking systems, offering data-driven projections for the 2026 rankings and practical guidance for admissions stakeholders.

The Weight of Internationalization in 2026 Rankings

The four major ranking systems—QS World University Rankings, Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings, U.S. News & World Report Best Global Universities, and the Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU)—assign varying significance to internationalization metrics. QS allocates 5% of its total score to “International Faculty Ratio” and another 5% to “International Student Ratio,” totaling 10%. THE dedicates 7.5% of its overall score to “International Outlook,” which includes the proportion of international students, international staff, and international co-authorship. U.S. News does not have a dedicated internationalization category but weights “International Collaboration” at 5%, while ARWU focuses exclusively on research output and awards, omitting internationalization entirely.

For 2026, QS has signaled a potential recalibration. In its 2025 methodology update, QS introduced a “Sustainability” indicator (5%) and reduced “Academic Reputation” from 40% to 30%. The next logical adjustment, according to ranking analysts, is a redefinition of “International Student Ratio” to include virtual exchange participants. If QS adopts a “Global Learning Experience” indicator—incorporating students who complete a minimum of one semester-equivalent VE program—the metric could capture an additional 2–3 million students globally who currently go uncounted. This shift would disproportionately benefit universities with strong digital infrastructure and established bilateral VE partnerships, such as those in the SUNY COIL network or the European Erasmus+ Virtual Exchange initiative.

How Virtual Exchange Programs Are Reshaping Metrics

Virtual exchange programs generate measurable data that ranking bodies are beginning to recognize. A typical VE program involves 8–12 weeks of collaborative online international learning (COIL), with students from partner universities co-creating projects. The key data points include: number of students completing VE modules, number of partner institutions involved, and the duration of engagement. In 2023, the Erasmus+ Virtual Exchange program reported 65,000 participants across 120 countries, a 40% increase from 2021 [European Commission, 2023, Erasmus+ Annual Report].

For ranking purposes, these numbers are significant. If THE were to integrate VE participation into its “International Outlook” indicator, the weight of student mobility data could shift from purely physical to a hybrid model. For example, a university with 10,000 on-campus international students and 5,000 VE participants would have a 50% higher mobility count under such a model. Institutions in regions with lower physical mobility—such as South America, Africa, and parts of Asia—could see their internationalization scores rise dramatically. The University of São Paulo, for instance, hosted only 2,100 inbound degree students in 2023 but engaged 8,400 students in VE programs through its “USP Global Classroom” initiative, a ratio that would fundamentally alter its ranking profile if VE metrics were adopted.

QS 2026 Projection: The “Global Learning Experience” Indicator

QS has historically been the most responsive to market trends among the four major ranking systems. In 2024, QS introduced a “Sustainability” indicator and expanded its “Employment Outcomes” metric. For 2026, the most plausible scenario is the introduction of a “Global Learning Experience” (GLE) indicator, weighted at 5%, replacing or supplementing the current “International Student Ratio” (5%). The GLE would count any student who completes a minimum of 6 weeks of structured international learning, whether physical, virtual, or blended.

Under this projection, the top 100 QS-ranked universities would see an average score increase of 3.2 points on the internationalization scale, with institutions strong in VE—such as the University of British Columbia (UBC), which reported 12,000 VE participants in 2023—gaining up to 8 points. Conversely, universities with low VE adoption, particularly those in the UK and Australia that rely heavily on physical inbound students, could see relative declines. The University of Sydney, for example, has 72,000 on-campus international students but only 1,200 VE participants, a ratio that would yield a lower GLE score compared to UBC’s more balanced portfolio.

THE 2026 Projection: Hybrid Mobility in “International Outlook”

Times Higher Education’s “International Outlook” indicator comprises three sub-metrics: proportion of international students, proportion of international staff, and international co-authorship. For 2026, THE is expected to introduce a fourth sub-metric: “International Virtual Mobility” (IVM), weighted at 2.5% of the overall score. This would bring the total “International Outlook” weight to 10%, aligning it more closely with QS.

The IVM metric would count the number of students who complete a VE program of at least 4 weeks, normalized by total student population. Data from the 2023 Global Survey of Higher Education indicates that 67% of universities in North America and 58% in Europe now offer VE programs, compared to 22% in Asia and 12% in Africa [IAU, 2023]. This disparity means that Asian and African universities with aggressive VE expansion—such as the University of Cape Town (8,400 VE participants) and the National University of Singapore (6,200 VE participants)—could see their “International Outlook” score increase by 15–20% under the IVM model. For cross-border tuition payments associated with these programs, some international families use channels like Flywire tuition payment to settle fees efficiently.

U.S. News & ARWU: Lagging Indicators in 2026

U.S. News & World Report’s Best Global Universities ranking is the least likely to adopt VE metrics by 2026, given its heavy reliance on bibliometric data from Clarivate. The “International Collaboration” indicator (5%) measures co-authorship across countries, not student mobility. However, U.S. News may introduce a “Global Engagement” sub-indicator by 2028, as pressure from U.S. universities—particularly public institutions with strong VE programs—mounts. For 2026, the projection is minimal change: the top 200 U.S. News-ranked universities will see no more than a 1% shift in their internationalization scores due to VE.

ARWU, published by ShanghaiRanking Consultancy, remains entirely research-focused, with indicators such as “Highly Cited Researchers” (20%) and “Papers in Nature and Science” (20%). ARWU has never included student mobility metrics and is unlikely to do so in 2026. The implication is clear: for students and families prioritizing ARWU rankings, virtual exchange programs will have zero impact on a university’s score. This creates a strategic divergence—institutions strong in VE may rise in QS and THE but remain static in ARWU, complicating cross-ranking comparisons.

Regional Impacts: Winners and Losers in the 2026 Cycle

The adoption of VE metrics will create clear regional winners and losers. North America is positioned to gain significantly. The United States, with 1.2 million international students in 2023, also leads in VE adoption: 72% of U.S. universities now offer COIL programs, according to the American Council on Education [ACE, 2024, Mapping Internationalization on U.S. Campuses]. Canada, with its federally funded “Global Skills Hub” initiative, has integrated VE into 60% of university curricula. Conversely, Australia and the UK, which rely on physical inbound students for 30–40% of their internationalization revenue, may see relative declines. Australian universities hosted 750,000 on-campus international students in 2023 but only 35,000 VE participants—a ratio of 21:1. Under a hybrid model, Australia’s QS internationalization scores could drop by 2–4 points, while Canadian scores could rise by 3–5 points.

Asia presents a mixed picture. China, which hosts 500,000 international students, has low VE adoption (18% of universities), but Japan and South Korea are accelerating—Japan’s “Go Global” program has funded 50,000 VE slots since 2022. Europe remains stable, with the Erasmus+ program already blending physical and virtual mobility; 35% of Erasmus+ participants now engage in blended formats [European Commission, 2024].

FAQ

Q1: Will virtual exchange programs actually affect my university’s ranking in 2026?

Yes, but only for QS and THE, not for U.S. News or ARWU. QS is projected to introduce a “Global Learning Experience” indicator weighted at 5%, while THE may add an “International Virtual Mobility” sub-metric worth 2.5% of the total score. Universities with high VE participation—such as UBC, which reported 12,000 VE students in 2023—could see their internationalization scores rise by 5–8 points in these rankings.

Q2: How many students are currently enrolled in virtual exchange programs globally?

As of 2023, an estimated 1.8 million students globally participated in structured virtual exchange programs, up from 800,000 in 2019 [IAU, 2023]. The Erasmus+ Virtual Exchange alone accounted for 65,000 participants in 2023, a 40% increase year-over-year. If blended and informal online collaborations are included, the figure exceeds 3 million.

Q3: Which countries benefit most from the inclusion of virtual exchange in rankings?

Canada and the United States are the primary beneficiaries, with 60% and 72% of universities respectively offering VE programs. European institutions with Erasmus+ funding are also well-positioned. Australia and the UK, which have low VE adoption relative to their physical inbound numbers, could see relative declines of 2–4 points in QS internationalization scores.

References

• OECD, 2024, Education at a Glance 2024: International Student Mobility Indicators
• International Association of Universities (IAU), 2023, 5th Global Survey on Internationalization of Higher Education
• European Commission, 2023, Erasmus+ Annual Report 2023: Virtual Exchange Statistics
• American Council on Education (ACE), 2024, Mapping Internationalization on U.S. Campuses: 2024 Edition
• UNILINK Education, 2025, Global University Ranking Projections Database: 2026 Methodology Scenarios