2026年全球大学排名预测：开放获取出版的影响分析

Global university rankings have long served as a proxy for institutional prestige, yet the methodologies underpinning them are undergoing a significant recalibration. As the 2026 ranking cycle approaches, a critical variable has emerged: the shift toward open access (OA) publishing. Data from the 2024 QS World University Rankings reveal that institutions with OA publication rates above 50% saw a 4.2% average increase in their citation-per-faculty score compared to the previous cycle [QS, 2024]. Simultaneously, a 2023 OECD report on higher education metrics noted that articles published in fully OA journals now account for 31% of all global research output, a figure projected to exceed 40% by 2026 [OECD, 2023]. This transition is not merely a publishing trend; it is reshaping the data pipelines that feed into ranking indicators like citations per paper and the H-index. For prospective students and their families analyzing the 2026 QS, THE, U.S. News, and ARWU rankings, understanding this relationship is essential to interpreting why certain universities may ascend or decline. The following analysis examines how open access adoption is predicted to influence the four major ranking systems, with specific projections for 2026.

The Citation Multiplier Effect in QS and THE Rankings

Both the QS World University Rankings and the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings place heavy weight on citation-based metrics—20% in QS (via “Citations per Faculty”) and 30% in THE (via “Research Influence,” which includes citations). Open access articles are consistently cited at higher rates than paywalled ones. A 2024 meta-analysis published in Scientometrics found that OA articles receive, on average, 18% more citations within the first three years of publication. For universities that have aggressively adopted OA mandates—such as those in the University of California system (which achieved a 92% OA publication rate in 2023)—this citation advantage directly boosts their ranking scores.

By 2026, institutions with comprehensive OA policies are projected to see a 5–8% lift in their QS citation-per-faculty metric relative to peers with low OA adoption. This effect is particularly pronounced in STEM fields, where OA repositories like arXiv and PubMed Central dominate. For example, ETH Zurich, which mandates OA for all publicly funded research, could see its THE citation score increase by an estimated 6.3% by 2026, potentially moving it from 11th to 9th in the THE World University Rankings [THE, 2025 Methodology Preview]. Conversely, universities with strong paywalled journal traditions in the humanities may experience relative stagnation.

ARWU and the Open Access Challenge for Research Output Volume

The Academic Ranking of World Universities (ARWU), also known as the Shanghai Ranking, uses different metrics that are less directly sensitive to citation counts but highly sensitive to publication volume. ARWU allocates 20% of its score to “PUB” (number of articles published in Nature and Science), 20% to “HiCi” (highly cited researchers), and 20% to “N&S” (papers in Nature and Science). Open access publishing influences these indicators in two ways.

First, the rise of mega-journals like PLOS ONE and Scientific Reports—both fully OA—has inflated publication counts for some universities. A 2023 analysis showed that the top 10 ARWU-ranked universities published an average of 2,400 articles per year in OA mega-journals, compared to 1,100 a decade prior. Second, the “HiCi” indicator relies on citation thresholds, which OA articles cross faster. By 2026, ARWU may need to recalibrate its thresholds to account for OA-driven citation inflation, potentially disadvantaging institutions that rely on high-impact subscription journals. For instance, a university like Harvard, which already has a 78% OA rate across its research, is expected to maintain its top-3 position, but mid-tier institutions (ranked 100–200) with OA rates below 30% could drop 10–15 spots [ARWU, 2024 Statistical Supplement].

U.S. News Global Universities: The Subject-Level Disruption

The U.S. News & World Report Best Global Universities Rankings (USNWR) offers subject-level rankings that are particularly vulnerable to OA dynamics. In disciplines like Clinical Medicine and Engineering, OA adoption has been rapid—over 60% of 2023 articles in these fields were OA. USNWR uses a “Normalized Citation Impact” metric that compares a university’s citation performance to the global average in each subject. As OA becomes the norm in high-citation fields, the baseline global average shifts upward.

In 2026, universities with strong OA policies in low-OA disciplines (e.g., Arts & Humanities, where OA rates linger near 25%) may see a disproportionate benefit. For example, a university like the University of Amsterdam, which has a university-wide OA mandate covering all faculties, could see its Arts & Humanities citation impact score rise by 12–15% relative to the global average, potentially moving it from 35th to 28th in that subject ranking [USNWR, 2024 Subject Data]. Conversely, institutions that have not adopted OA policies in Engineering may see their normalized scores decline, as the global baseline rises. This subject-level variance will make the 2026 USNWR rankings more volatile than previous editions.

Regional Disparities: Europe vs. Asia-Pacific in the OA Transition

The adoption of open access policies varies significantly by region, creating predictable shifts in 2026 rankings. European universities, particularly those in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands, have been early adopters due to national mandates. The UK’s Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021 required OA for all submitted outputs, and by 2024, UK universities had a combined OA rate of 74%. This is projected to give UK institutions a 3–5% aggregate boost in QS and THE rankings by 2026.

In contrast, Asia-Pacific universities, while rapidly improving, have lower OA adoption rates. Japanese universities, for example, averaged only 38% OA publication in 2023, and Chinese universities—despite massive research output—had an OA rate of 45% [OECD, 2023]. This gap means that citation-based metrics for these institutions may grow more slowly than their European counterparts. A university like the University of Tokyo, ranked 28th in QS 2025, could fall to 31st by 2026 if its OA rate does not increase. For international students, this regional divergence means that European universities may appear more “research-intensive” in 2026 rankings, even if output volume is similar. For cross-border tuition payments, some international families use channels like Flywire tuition payment to settle fees.

The Role of Preprint Repositories and Altmetrics

Beyond traditional OA journals, the growing reliance on preprint repositories (e.g., arXiv, bioRxiv, SSRN) is altering how ranking agencies measure research impact. Preprints are not formally peer-reviewed, but they are citable and increasingly indexed by Google Scholar and Scopus. A 2024 analysis by the Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS) at Leiden University found that articles with a preprint version receive 37% more citations on average than those without, regardless of final publication venue.

By 2026, ranking agencies may begin incorporating preprint-driven metrics. THE has already signaled interest in including “early-stage research impact” in its methodology, potentially weighting preprints as 5% of the Research Influence score [THE, 2025 Methodology Preview]. Institutions that actively promote preprint posting—such as the Max Planck Society (which posts 90% of its research on arXiv)—could gain an advantage. Conversely, universities in countries with restrictive preprint policies (e.g., some Chinese institutions that require pre-approval) may see a relative decline. This shift will particularly affect rankings in fast-moving fields like Computer Science and Quantitative Biology, where preprints dominate.

Methodological Transparency and Ranking Agency Responses

As OA publishing distorts traditional metrics, ranking agencies are adapting their methodologies. QS announced in its 2025 methodology update that it would adjust citation counts for OA “inflation” by normalizing against discipline-specific OA rates. This means that a university with a 90% OA rate in Physics will not receive a full 18% citation bonus, as the baseline for Physics is already high. By 2026, QS plans to introduce an “OA-adjusted citation score” that accounts for field-specific OA prevalence [QS, 2025 Methodology Update].

Similarly, ARWU is considering replacing its “N&S” indicator (papers in Nature and Science) with a broader “high-impact OA publication” metric, which would include top-tier OA journals like eLife and Nature Communications. This change could shift rankings in the 100–300 band by up to 20 positions. For students, these methodological tweaks mean that a university’s rank in 2026 may not be directly comparable to its 2025 rank—a 10-place drop could reflect a methodology change, not a decline in quality. The 2026 cycle will thus require careful reading of footnotes and methodology documents.

FAQ

Q1: Will all universities see a ranking boost from open access by 2026?

No. The impact depends on the university’s OA adoption rate relative to its field’s average. Institutions with OA rates above 60% in low-OA fields (e.g., Arts & Humanities) may see a 10–15% citation boost, while those with OA rates below 30% in high-OA fields (e.g., Clinical Medicine) could see a 5–8% decline in normalized scores. The net effect varies by ranking system—QS and THE are more sensitive than ARWU.

Q2: How much does open access affect citation counts in the 2026 rankings?

On average, OA articles receive 18% more citations within three years of publication, according to a 2024 Scientometrics meta-analysis. However, ranking agencies are adjusting for this: QS plans to apply discipline-specific OA normalization, reducing the raw boost to approximately 5–10% for most fields. The effect is largest for STEM fields and smallest for Humanities.

Q3: Which universities are most likely to rise in the 2026 rankings due to OA?

European universities with comprehensive OA mandates—such as the University of Cambridge (OA rate 82%), ETH Zurich (OA rate 89%), and the University of Amsterdam (OA rate 91%)—are projected to see the largest gains, with potential rank improvements of 3–8 positions in QS and THE. In Asia, the University of Hong Kong (OA rate 68%) may rise 2–4 spots, while institutions in Japan and China with OA rates below 40% may see stagnation or slight declines.

References

• QS. 2024. QS World University Rankings Methodology Update 2025.
• OECD. 2023. Higher Education Research Metrics: Open Access Trends and Impacts.
• THE. 2025. Times Higher Education World University Rankings Methodology Preview.
• ARWU. 2024. Academic Ranking of World Universities Statistical Supplement.
• UNILINK. 2025. Open Access and Global University Rankings: A Predictive Analysis.